By Norm Frauenheim
Date and place remain uncertain, but exploding interest in Canelo Alvarez-versus-Terence Crawford six months before a projected opening bell is already evident in the noisy debate on social media and shifting numbers in the betting line.
The social-media noise will continue, ad nauseam. But it’s the betting line, an early poll of sorts, that is showing a shift of public opinion toward Canelo.
Canelo opened as a slight favorite, minus-190. But the odds, the dollars, are moving toward Canelo during the weeks since an 11th-hour deal was struck with Saudi Prince and promoter Turki Alalshikh on Feb. 7.
This week Canelo is at minus-230. Translated, that means there’s a 66-percent chance he wins a fight as intriguing as any for a bout expected to happen in September in either Las Vegas or Los Angeles.
The early odds figure to change more, especially during the first Saturday in May when Canelo is expected to reunify the super-middleweight title against International Boxing Federation belt-holder William Scull, a Cuban living in Germany, in a perceived tune-up in Riyadh.
Canelo figures to win easily, but how easily will be a key factor going into the fight against Crawford, a four-division champion and an all-time welterweight great who is moving up two weight classes.
Increasingly, there’s social-media talk that the smaller, more skillful Crawford can beat Canelo. But the shifting odds say something else. There’s an old line: In a fight between two good fighters, bet on the bigger guy. For now, that’s Canelo.
According to the latest odds update, Crawford has a 33 percent chance at springing one of the biggest upsets since Manny Pacquiao, then a lightweight champion, jumped to welterweight and scored an eighth-round stoppage of Oscar De La Hoya in December 2008.
Pacquiao weighed in at 142 pounds. De La Hoya, who came down from junior middleweight, was at 145 at the official weigh-in. It looked as if De La Hoya had weakened himself in the battle to make weight. Pacquiao overwhelmed De La Hoya late in the eighth, forcing him to quit before the start of the ninth.
Canelo, already known to tire in the later rounds, won’t have to weaken himself on the scale. According to the agreement, he’ll be at his customary weight, 168 pounds at the weigh-in the day before opening bell.
It’s up to Crawford, who fought and won a belt at junior-middle (154) in his last bout, to add pounds. The question is how that will affect Crawford, who unlike Canelo does not have a fight scheduled before the projected September bout.
If Crawford can carry the additional weight without draining his endurance or eroding the dynamic resilience in his varied skillset, he’s got a real chance. Canelo has never faced anybody with Crawford’s quicksilver ability to adjust, including a seamless move from orthodox to southpaw and back.
At 37 — he’ll be 38 on Sept 28, Crawford’s feet might not move with the agility and speed that they did when he was at lightweight and junior-welter.
If, however, Crawford withstands Canelo’s early power, carries the weight and carries himself into the later rounds, there’s a chance he catches a tiring Canelo with counters from angles the powerful Mexican has yet to see.
On the scale of intangibles, the edge goes to Crawford. There’s charisma in his defiance. Motivation, too. Underdog will be the perfect fit for Crawford in his pursuit of big money and genuine legacy.
It’s not as if Crawford is coming into what might be his last fight seeking a gigantic payout against a Jake Paul or a Conor McGregor. He’s taking on perhaps the biggest challenge possible against a bigger man, Canelo, who goes into the fight more than just favored.
Canelo is supposed to win. There’s pressure in that role, but it’s one Canelo understands better than any fighter in his generation.
He’s learned how to counter it and how to use it throughout the years since a milestone scorecard loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in September 2013. If social media and shifting odds are any indication, that pressure is just beginning to build.
Best bet:
It’s going to be a hell of a fight.