Cotto in a good fight or Margarito in a battle

By Bart Barry

Conventional wisdom promises Saturday’s fight will be a classic -- a standard of welterweight wildness we use for decades to come. Two sluggers, one a Puerto Rican and the other a Mexican, about whose punches the first descriptive verb to come to mind is “pulverize.” The best fight we will have seen since Vazquez-Marquez III. The best fight we are going to see until Vazquez-Marquez IV.

But what if it isn’t? What if Saturday’s fight does not deliver? Who do we blame?

Miguel Cotto. And it might mark his finest hour.

This weekend at MGM Grand, Cotto will defend his WBA welterweight title against former WBO and IBF champion Antonio Margarito. Because of Floyd Mayweather’s felicitous exit from our sport, Cotto-Margarito will determine the best fighter in boxing’s best division -- whatever sanctioning bodies or magazines say about it.

I’ll be there. In fact, all four of our weekly columnists will be there. It’s that big of an event. Even among the pros, expectations are quite high. But right now, before things get too febrile, maybe a little tempering is in order. What do you say?

Cotto is the variable. For the first time in his career, he will go into a superfight considered the multidimensional guy. Against Shane Mosley, Zab Judah, and to a lesser extent, Paulie Malignaggi, Cotto was considered the limited, if potent, slugger.

But that impression changed pretty drastically after Cotto’s fight against Mosley in November. Cotto showed he could box and move as well as Mosley. He also showed he’s capable of deciding to go backwards.

Antonio Margarito is not. If Cotto always had retreat in his mind as a third option -- and a Mosley left hook in Round 9 eliminated Options 1 and 2 -- Margarito doesn’t. He has seen others go backwards, sure. But to Margarito those others didn’t appear to be fighting at the time, so why dwell on it?

Margarito is the constant. Given his druthers, Margarito will not let this fight see the final bell. So rather than even have Vegas judges at ringside, why not raffle those fantastic raised seats to three lucky Tijuanenses, eh Tony?

To ensure Margarito does not do what he did to Kermit Cintron in April, Cotto must attain Margarito’s respect early. He must find a way to get in Margarito’s mind and reprogram him. He must convince Margarito that marching forward and winging shots will not do.

But by instinct and national tradition, Margarito is hard-wired to apply pressure. Take shots to the head, take shots to the body, swing and miss often, perhaps -- but always apply pressure. There’s only one way for Cotto to stop this. It’s the same way he adjusted Mosley’s strategy eight months ago.

The fencer’s jab. Because he gives up a significant height and reach advantage to everyone he faces, and because he does his best work on the inside, Cotto has acquired an interesting way of closing distance. He sets a large space between his feet, skips his back foot almost to the heel of his lead foot and thrusts forward. The pointed toe of his left foot rises past knee level. And then just as it lands, his left glove fires out from his forehead.

Cotto was quick enough to land this punch on Mosley, and there's every reason to think he’s quick enough to land it on Margarito. Even a forward-charging Margarito? Yes, because Margarito’s forward charge often needs a few rounds to pick up speed and commitment.

Cotto’s jab may not be enough to hurt Margarito. But it needs to be enough to deter him. It needs to be enough to have Margarito a little off-balance when Cotto arrives at his chest. Otherwise, Cotto is going to find Margarito waiting for him with open and voracious arms.

Asked last week if he was concerned about the bright lights of a Las Vegas superfight, Margarito had this to say: “I don’t worry about the people, and I don’t worry about the press. It will be just him and me in the ring.”

OK, that’s conference-call boilerplate. Ask 10 fighters that question and nine will give you the same answer. But here’s why Margarito means it: Volume punchers are immune to pressure because volume punchers don’t slump.

If a fighter sets a strategy of going forward and making contact with his opponent’s body as often as possible -- though the heavens may fall -- he will succeed at doing exactly that. He may take too many shots on the way in. He may find himself unconscious before 36 minutes are up. But first he will have the satisfaction of feeling his knuckles sink into the meat of another man’s arms, shoulders and chest.

So long as Margarito is able to find Cotto, chances are good he will entertain us when he does.

For Cotto it’s going to be trickier. He has to balance expectations of victory with being true to himself. It would be better for Cotto to lose by knockout than decision. If he is going to see a blemish on his professional record, better that it happen while he fights his heart out -- rather than see judges favor Margarito’s activity over his safe precision.

Or, more likely, Cotto will realize in the first third of the fight he can land his jab, establish a bit of distance and tag Margarito on the way in. Such a realization will allow Cotto to box more than we want him to. But it will also assure Cotto’s place atop the welterweight division.

Two years ago, when Cotto was more of a grinder than a boxer, I’d have taken Margarito in a pitched battle. This year, if Cotto allows a pitched battle to happen, I’ll take Margarito again. But I don’t think he will. So I’ll take Cotto in a good fight: SD-12.