This Friday night boxing fans will watch former undisputed world beater Jermain Taylor(29-4-1) resume his quest for redemption on Showtime. Its chapter two in the Arkansas native’s comeback story, this time he’ll be taking on Caleb Truax (18-0-1) of Minnesota.
(record scratch) Who?
If you’re a boxing enthusiast, you’ll probably Google his name, skim his record, and gear up to see what Taylor has left in the tank. Unless you happen to be from Minnesota, in which case Friday night is “Caleb’s big fight”. Minnesota’s boxing community is a small, but fiercely loyal cluster, most of whom have watched Truax fight, train, and even shared a few post-fight beers with him over the years.
After covering Caleb Truax for three years I’ve developed a strong familiarity with him inside and outside of the ring. This is a much better fight than the general public may believe. While there are a small handful of people out there that give Truax a shot in this one, my reasoning will probably differ from most. If Caleb Truax is going to win this fight it will have to be because he is good enough, not because Taylor has fallen off far enough.
The Middleweight from Osseo, Minnesota has a window of opportunity Friday night. For fans unfamiliar with Caleb Truax, I’ve divided my insight on what to watch for into two themes, they are as follows…
Don’t bank on a knockout
The most repetitive mistake I come across in my conversations with other Minnesota fight fans/fans of Truax is looking to Taylor’s shortcomings for an opportunity. Yes Taylor has been knocked out in devastating fashion three times, but each time was at the hands of a current or former world champion. Truax has never been in with anyone even close to that class. That’s something Truax’s team won’t ignore, and neither should anyone making a prediction on this fight
“But isn’t Truax’s best hope to catch Jermain off guard, and hope for a flash knockout?”
Wrong. Caleb Truax doesn’t knock people out. He didn’t knock out Phil Williams, he didn’t knock out Andy Kolle , and he probably won’t start with Jermain Taylor, so it’s best to just throw that idea out the window. Taylor’s handlers probably wouldn’t have picked Truax if it weren’t for his modest KO%.
Regardless of Taylor’s decline, you can expect to see plenty of his jab, and you can expect it to be the best jab Caleb Truax has ever seen. To expect a guy who is taking a dramatic step up to plan around that jab, and find a way to land that perfect power shot isn’t realistic. It took Carl Froch, and Arthur Abraham twelve rounds to do it, and I just don’t see it being the Minnesotan’s best route to a victory.
Expect a thorough game plan
So, how can Truax beat Taylor? He isn’t a power puncher, and he’s not a particularly fast middleweight. What’s the saving grace I’m giving him? It’s that if Caleb Truax is one thing, in or out of the ring, he is a strategist.
Caleb is a college graduate, and one of the more articulate pro fighter’s I’ve ever shared a conversation with, and that trait follows him into the ring. I’ve watched close to every one of Caleb’s professional fights, and have almost never seen him overwhelm anyone. I have, however, seen him out-think almost everyone.
Truax has the patience to develop a game plan and stick with it from start to finish, and in this case it should center around Taylor’s stamina issues. One would have to expect Taylor will want to finish this one early, and make a statement. The longer Truax can survive Taylor’s power the better. I’ve come to know Caleb Truax as one of the more careful fighters I’ve watched, and don’t expect him to get caught early. If he can defend against a few of Taylor’s power presses he’ll benefit greatly in the middle and late rounds when the former champ’s stamina starts to falter.
Conclusion
Although Truax is 28 while Taylor is 33, and it’s entirely possible that he’ll be the superior athlete come fight night, I just wouldn’t bank on it if I’m team Truax. Truax needs to be ready for a brand of speed and power that he’s never seen before. He’s going to have to weather a storm of sorts, and wait for his opportunity. He’ll have to start with a defensive mindset that shifts in favor of offense as the fight wears on. If his offense is strengthening by the middle rounds we’ll know a lot more about his chances.
I’m giving Jermain Taylor a 60/40 tilt in the odds. It is absolutely his fight to lose, but if I know Caleb Truax, he isn’t thinking that way, and 40 percentage points worth of breathing room may just be more than enough for him.
