By Norm Frauenheim
London’s Wembley Stadium will be the stage Saturday for what figures to be a terrific rematch in the second edition of Carl Froch-versus-George Groves and an even better lesson for what ails the business in North America.
It’s pretty simple, obvious enough to be embarrassing. Give the fans what they want. From New York to Las Vegas and Los Angeles, that market fundamental has been lost, or perhaps ignored for all the tired reasons that have been reported ad nauseam for the last few years.
It’s an era that should be remembered for Manny Pacquiao-Floyd Mayweather Jr. and maybe a rematch or two. Instead, it’s marked by the deadly Top Rank-Golden Boy feud that denied customers what they have wanted the most.
The Wembley crowd is expected to be 80,000, a UK record, for a fight between two very good super-middleweights. Yet, neither Froch nor Groves will ever be Mayweather and Pacquaio, who were and perhaps still are the best of their generation. If Froch and Groves can draw 80,000 to an arena for a grudge match-turned-spectacle, imagine what Mayweather could have done, or perhaps can still do.
Froch-Groves is essentially a UK story full of tension between the two and controversy about a debatable stoppage that allowed Froch to win a ninth-round TKO last November in Manchester. But their rematch is also a snapshot look at what could have – should have – been. The world has wanted Pacquaio-Mayweather.
The good news in Froch-Groves is that it is a sure sign business can thrive if it’s done right, which simply means that the customers are always more important than promotional egos. After all, Froch could have walked away, or hid behind some marketing spin or manufactured social polls in an attempt to fight somebody else. But that would have been running away from what the market demands. That would have been stupid. Froch isn’t. A record crowd is about to thank him.
The bad news, at least in North America, is in declining television numbers for major bouts over the last few months. HBO’s pay-per-view buy rate for Pacquiao’s rematch victory over Timothy Bradley on April 12 at Las Vegas’ MGM Grand was reported to have been between 750,000 and 800,000. Solid, yet short of the million milestone. As of Thursday, there was still no official word on Showtime’s PPV buy rate for Mayweather’s majority decision over Marcos Maidana on May 3, also at the MGM Grand. Fair or not, a slow count means Showtime is no rush to report disappointing numbers, which have been speculated to be about 900,000, also short of the million marker.
Numbers can be twisted into equations that serve just about any agenda. But the last two from Pacquiao and Mayweather point to the same result: Exasperation at no Mayweather-Pacquiao is beginning to add up to fewer customers.
A further red flag was raised Saturday in light-heavyweight Adonis Stevenson’s surprisingly difficult decision over Andrzej Fonfara in a non-PPV bout in Montreal. In his first fight since jumping from HBO to Showtime in late March after signing with advisor Al Haymon, the Stevenson-featured card drew an average audience of 672,000, according to Nielsen. The rating peaked at 800,000 for Stevenson-Fonfara.
Stevenson’s last fight on HBO — a sixth-round stoppage of Tony Bellew in November – drew a reported audience of 1.3 million, also for a non-PPV bout. Some difference was expected, because HBO has a bigger universe (29 million) than Showtime (23 million). But even at the 800,000 peak for the victory over Fonfara, the audience for Stevenson was down by half-a-million.
Forget the marketing spin, which will try to explain away the decline. Like the latest returns from Pacquiao and Mayweather, the Stevenson numbers are rooted in what the customers have been denied. Before Stevenson jumped to Showtime and Haymon, there was momentum for a Stevenson-Sergey Kovalev fight.
Kovalev-Stevenson wasn’t Pacquiao-Mayweather, but it was a good alternative for fans weary of not getting the fights they wanted the most. Just when it looked as if the bout would happen late this year, Stevenson walked away from the blockbuster. A lot of customers joined him.
Many more will walk away from a lot more if feuding promoters don’t pay attention to Froch and Groves to a London primer in basic business sense.
