By Alejandro Echevarria
Whether or not the WBC Middleweight Title is on the line this Saturday’s match between Miguel Cotto (40-4-0, 33Ko’s) and Saúl “Canelo” Alvarez (45-1-1, 32Ko’s) will decide who the lineal middleweight champion will be. If all the pieces fall in place, it will also decide who fights Gennady Golovkin for recognition as the best middleweight on the planet. That is one of the many aspects that make this fight interesting. The storied rivalry between Mexican and Puerto Rican boxers and the fact that both fighters are at (or close to) the peak of their popularity also adds to the significance of the bout.
With that being said, what makes this fight appealing to many boxing fans and insiders is that the match-up of styles suggests this will be a war. Both fighters are good boxers but both are fighters. They are usually willing to trade, they both have power and both have shown to have a fight instinct instead of the flight one.
Canelo brings more stopping power to the fight but Cotto’s recent displays as a middleweight suggest he can also hurt bigger fighters. Similarly, Canelo proved he can use his strength and aggression to overcome a more skilled boxer as he did against Lara. It is easy to imagine that Cotto’s edge in class is offset by Canelo’s youth and physical advantages leaving us with a very even playing field.
Even though odds makers have the young Mexican as a 3 to 1 favorite, boxing analysts see this as a much more even fight and I agree. I do believe that whoever wins the fight will probably do so in a convincing fashion but that will be more because of the way these fighters carry themselves in the ring than because there will be a significance difference between them as fighters. Both of them will leave everything in the ring and, as happens to most fighters who fight this way, when they lose they will do so in spectacular fashion.
Most agree that for Miguel to win he has to use his well timed jab, foot work and not a small amount of body work. Canelo should be looking to press the action. If he can impose his size and strength on Cotto, who has had problems with this in the past, he should be able to get a stoppage in the second half of the fight. This same fight plan could instead prove deadly for Saúl if Cotto is able to disrupt his momentum with jabs and footwork as this would eventually lead to openings for left hooks to the body.
Regardless of who is ahead on the scorecards after the sixth round, the manner in which these initial rounds are fought will probably determine the outcome of the fight. Canelo has to land some big shots. Otherwise he will succumb to frustration and be worn down by Cotto’s left hand. Cotto needs to avoid punishment and must conserve his energy. If he doesn’t, his 35 year-old, battle-ravaged body will not hold up for twelve rounds.
With Freddie Roach in his corner, the four-division Puerto Rican champion seems revitalized. Whether this is just a mirage or he has really regained part of the physical prowess that made him so dangerous early in his career is up for discussion but the fact that he believes it doesn’t seem to be. I expect to see a very confident Miguel Cotto use his timing and footwork to stop Canelo from putting combinations together. Alvarez will have his moments and will probably win some of these rounds but at too high a cost. Cotto’s jab will be there at all times zapping Canelo of the necessary confidence to press the action and if left hooks are landing, his stamina may very well be diminished before the twelfth round. It’s not impossible for Cotto to get a late stoppage but I don’t think it will happen. More likely we will see a Cotto, ahead on the score cards, do enough to win a unanimous. Canelo will prove too strong to go down.
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Quality of opponents – Within their last five fights, both fighters shared two opponents. They both lost against Floyd Mayweather while Alvarez defeated Austin Trout to whom Cotto lost. Against “Money” Mayweather, Cotto looked better and was more efficient but he was clearly beat by Trout whom Canelo knocked down en route to a unanimous decision victory.
Canelo looked impressive in his two stoppage victories against Alfredo Angulo and James Kirkland. Of these two, the Kirkland victory stands out because it was fought the way the “Mandingo Warrior” wanted, that is to say it was a slugfest, and still Canelo won with a “Knockout of the Year” candidate.
Regarding his split decision win against Erislandy Lara, many thought this fight could’ve gone either way. Canelo had trouble dealing with the lateral movements and angles Lara presented but nonetheless came out with a victory. In this fight, Canelo proved that he can press enough and has enough hand speed to deal with slicker boxers.
On his side, since losing consecutive fights against Mayweather and Trout, Cotto has stringed three stoppages in a row. He outclassed and out gunned an over matched Delvin Rodríguez then challenged linear middleweight champion Sergio Martínez. Martínez had gone down in his last three fights, was almost knocked out against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (after which he needed surgery on his knee) and squeaked by Martin Murray in a fight that could’ve gone either way. Still, Cotto looked sharp and powerful in his first fight as a middleweight.
Against Daniel Geale, a former middleweight beltholder, Cotto again looked impressive until Geale quit after going down twice in round four. It must be noted that Geale looked drained the day of the weigh-in where a catch weight of 155 pounds was set but not met by Geale.
These recent fights offer a bit of an insight into the fighter’s strengths and weaknesses. Cotto’s two losses came at the hands of slick boxers and before his switch to training with Freddie Roach. His three victories came against foes that were either not on his level or not in their prime. Canelo’s loss to Mayweather and struggles against Lara show that he also has issues with angles and speed. His victories against a diminished Angulo and a James Kirkland without Anne Wolfe in his corner were impressive but not unexpected.
If we look back at their entire records, Cotto’s is more impressive. He’s faced more undefeated fighters, more past and eventual champions and more A-level opponents. He’s also come up short on his two biggest matches (Mayweather and Pacquiao) but his experience will serve him well. Still, I believe Canelo has a slight edge based on his victories over Lara, where he edged an opponent with a wrong style for him, and Kirkland where he fought his opponent’s fight and still came out with the win. In a sport where the saying “what have you done for me lately?” is so important, Alvarez has made a statement with his three most recent victories.
Defense and Chin – Neither fighter is a defensive master. Cotto may hold a slight advantage because his footwork is more polished and effective than Canelo’s but Alvarez is definitely the stronger more resilient fighter. It helps Canelo that he is quite fresh despite having 47 fights under his belt and has not been through the wars Cotto has endured. Even though Cotto has not been cut or badly bruised in his last fights, he hasn’t been hit by a big puncher in some time.
Both fighters have been hurt by single punches in the past. Cotto against the likes of Ricardo Torres, “Chop Chop” Corley and Zab Judah and Canelo against Jose Cotto but those all seem to be in the distant past. If this becomes a give and take fight, Canelo will probably have more resilience down the stretch and that may prove to be the difference maker.
Skill an Technique – In terms of pure skill and boxing technique, it is Cotto who holds the upper hand. A decorated amateur and Olympic boxer, Cotto has proven he can outbox almost everybody (his victory over an almost prime Shane Mosley being the best example of this) when he is sharp. His well timed jab is a very disruptive weapon and carries enough pop to stun and stop the momentum for many fighters (he’s even floored several of his opponents with it).
Canelo has very good hand speed and when he feels comfortable in his stance, he can let those heavy hands go in good multi-punch combinations. Still, he has issues with moving targets and angles which Cotto could very well use to his advantage. If he freezes against Cotto, the Puerto Rican’s jab and left hook could prove deadly to whatever Canelo’s fight plan is.
At the end of the day, if Cotto could box for 12 rounds and avoid a give and take fight, he would probably come out on top.
Strength and Power – Here is another category where one of the boxers holds a clear advantage. Even though they both started at the welterweight limit, Canelo is the naturally bigger guy and seems to have a bit more pop in his punches. In his victories against Carlos Baldomir, Alfonso Gómez and most recently James Kirkland, The Mexican proved he can hurt opponents with single shots. Cotto usually needs to break down opponents before he can get his stoppages.
Both fighters can hurt each other but Canelo has a bigger opportunity of landing a single punch or combination that can determine the course of the fight. Cotto hasn’t been hurt by a single punch in some time but, has also not been hit by a big puncher in some time as well. Were they to trade punch for punch, Canelo would have a clear advantage.
Miscellaneous and Intangibles – As the name suggests, there are other aspects to consider. The last time Canelo was in a fight of this magnitude he lost and seemed frustrated by the end of the fight. Will the memories of the Mayweather fight haunt the young boxer and keep him from performing at his best? Is Cotto’s resurgence real or just the by-product of great matchmaking? Will Canelo’s lengthy training camp result in over training and drain him of the necessary explosiveness he will need to come out victorious? Can Cotto take the kind of shots that Canelo has landed on the likes of Angulo and Kirkland? And most important, are we in line to see a true classic? Out of all these questions, the one I would like most to be answered in the affirmative is the last one.