By Norm Frauenheim-
Canelo Alvarez’ enrollment this week in VADA, voluntary drug testing, represents relief for a nervous business still counting on big bucks from a rematch with Gennady Golovkin.
But don’t misinterpret it as a deal.
That would be foolishly premature, way too simple, especially after a contentious few weeks after the May 5 date was scrubbed in the turbulent wake of news that Canelo had tested positive twice for a banned substance.
The rematch is still very possible, probably likely. But circumstances have changed, all of which could have a significant impact on negotiations for a proposed Sept. 15 rematch of the controversial GGG-Canelo draw last September. The door on talks re-opened with Canelo’s tweet Tuesday that he’s back in the VADA program. But the table looks like a very different place from the day when the cancelled May sequel was announced on Jan 29.
GGG, whose evident frustration at the judging in last year’s draw morphed into obvious anger at Canelo’s after the PED controversy in February, said repeatedly before his stoppage of Vanes Martirosyan May 5 that he wanted more equitable terms.
That starts with money, of course. Ends there, too. There’s nothing to discuss without it. Canelo promoter Oscar De La Hoya was quoted in media reports that Canelo decided to re-join VADA for his fans. For the money, too. Where else is he going to get a chance at $50 million?
That’s was the potential for his final purse last September for a fight that did a reported 1.3 million pay-per-view buys. According to media speculation before the bout, the PPV number would have had to have been 1.5 million for Canelo to get the $50 million max. It not clear whether he did. But he got close enough to want to take another bite at about that, far and away, makes the most sense. And dollars.
This time around, however, it fair to guess that Canelo is going to want a bigger share. Based roughly on guarantees — $5 million for Canelo and $ 3 million for GGG — filed in contracts with the Nevada Athletic Commission last September, the final split of revenue was 62.5 percent for Canelo and 37.5 percent for GGG.
It’ll be no surprise if GGG demands a 50-50 split. The first fight, after all, was a draw. On the scorecards, it was demonstrably 50-50. In the court of public opinion, meanwhile, it’s still a debate, also an ongoing sales pitch for the rematch.
Then, there’s controversy surrounding Canelo’s PED tests for clenbuterol, a banned substance he says he got from unknowingly eating contaminated Mexican beef. GGG doesn’t believe him. Turns out, neither do a lot of fans, who expressed their skepticism throughout media reports of GGG’s decision to fight on Cinco De Mayo anyway, against Martirosyan, a late stand-in at StubHub Center.
The bout was panned by many in the media. Martirosyan was gone, knocked out and flat on the canvas, before the end of the second round. But the argument about Canelo and why he had not re-enrolled in VADA lingered.
Unintended or not, a forgettable fight provided a forum for criticism of Canelo in social and mainstream media. It grew, putting pressure on Canelo to do Tuesday what had to be done if the rematch was to have any chance at happening.
It’s a mystery as to why he didn’t enroll in VADA earlier. It’s a mystery, too, as to why he didn’t hold a news conference in late February to just say that he, like anybody else, sometimes gets a meal off the back of a taco truck. He ate one with some tainted meat. No crime there. A lot of people would not have believed him. A lot of people never will. But some would have.
Now, however, Canelo finds himself with a burden of proof he has never had to shoulder. The skepticism expressed about him over the last couple of months is perhaps symptomatic of an erosion in faith from fans whose unquestioned loyalty gave him leverage in negotiations. He could always say he was the draw. He still is, but maybe not by the margin he once had.
What happens within that margin figures to decide when and where – maybe even if — this rematch happens.
