GGG-Canelo: The Time Is Now

By Norm Frauenheim-

Stalled negotiations for a Canelo Alvarez-Gennady Golovkin rematch are diverting attention and headlines away from two intriguing fights – Abner Mares-Leo Santa Cruz II in Los Angeles and Terence Crawford’s welterweight debut against Jeff Horn in Las Vegas, both on June 9.

It reminds me of an old line: The only thing killing boxing is boxing. It is the flaw, the proverbial glass jaw, that always seems to undercut a chaotic business that just can’t get out of its own way.

Television ratings have been promising this year, especially on ESPN. There’s an audience of young fans in America’s changing demographics. There’s looming interest in Crawford, Mikey Garcia, Vasiliy Lomachenko, Santa Cruz, Mares, Oscar Valdez Jr., Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder.

But today the business is being held hostage by talk that has been about percentages. According to various reports, GGG wants an equitable split, 50-50, since Canelo’s positive PED tests and subsequent withdrawal from a rematch that was supposed to happen on May 5. Canelo’s Golden Boy reps are reportedly standing by numbers they said were the terms of the initial deal, 65 percent for Canelo and 35 for GGG.

Those are numbers that are interesting only if you’re shopping for a new mortgage. Fans, I suspect, only want to know there’s a date and place for an opening bell.

In the here and now, who knows. There has only been a chilling silence for the last week. As I write this, there have been no reports talks have resumed.

I keep thinking back to GGG’s comment a couple of days before his swift, second-round stoppage of Vanes Martirosyan on May 5 at StubHub Center in Carson, Calif. Then, he said there was only a 10 percent chance that a rematch of their controversial draw last September would happen.

Then, it sounded like an opening line in re-setting the table for a new deal in the controversial wake of the Canelo PED controversy, which includes an ongoing, Nevada Athletic Commission-imposed suspension that will end in mid-August. Now, it sounds like a prediction,

I can only hope he’s wrong. At the time, there appears to be some sympathy for his attempt to get more favorable terms. Fifty-fifty looks unlikely. Canelo still ranks as the bigger draw and becomes more of one because of the controversy that now surrounds him.

But a better deal for GGG only seems fair, especially after the cancellation of the May 5 bout. GGG had no hand in the cancellation and, in fact, fought for a reported $1 million guarantee against Martirosyan on the same day. GGG’s promotional rep, Tom Loeffler of K-2, suggested that the Nevada Commission should have levied a fine against Canelo in addition to the suspension. The Commission said a fine was not possible, because Canelo’s positive PED tests in February were not related to a fight that had already happened in the state.

Still, Loeffler said damage had been done to GGG. The only way to get some of it back is through negotiations. Thus far, however, Golden Boy has yet to buy any of it. Hard to know where it goes next, if anywhere.

No rematch is a loss for just about everybody. Hardcore fans will eventually move on to Crawford, Lomachenko, Garcia, Santa Cruz, Mares, Valdez, Joshua and Wilder. But causal fans will again have another reason to stay away.

Meanwhile, no deal for a sequel on September 15 is reason to wonder whether there will ever be a rematch. GGG has bigger global footprint than Canelo. The Kazak fighter, whose pro career started in Germany and includes stops in Monaco, could go to Tokyo for good money against Ryota Murata.

There are also opportunities for Canelo, although the rumored one is bound to get only boos. Spike O’Sullivan? Really? Arguments over a proposed purse split are more interesting.

Billy Joe Saunders also has been mentioned. But both GGG and Canelo need to be careful about the emerging UK middleweight. Saunders has a chance to beat both. GGG has begun to display some wear and tear. At 27, Canelo continues to fight in spurts. Fatigue just might be part of his genetic make-up.

But it’ll get him beat, just as surely as time will eventually beat GGG, who will be 37 next April.

A year or two from now, GGG and Canelo could come back to talk with a loss or two between them and a lot less on the table.

The time is now.