By Norm Frauenheim-
It’s a fight hard to pick, mostly because Manny Pacquiao and Keith Thurman are welterweights fighting to recreate themselves or perhaps re-discover who they were.
The guy who wins the identity crisis wins the fight. That’s one theory, anyway.
Sixteen days before opening bell at Las Vegas’ MGM Grand, there’s only one familiar trait. Pacquiao’s likability is unchanged, un-eroded by time and controversy. His popularity has been evident ever since the Filipino Senator arrived back in Los Angeles a couple of weeks ago for his final stretch of training at the Wild Card Gym.
Social media is full of photos of Pacquiao doing his roadwork on LA streets. Crowds of runners follow him in scenes straight out of Forrest Gump. At a couple of levels, Pacquiao is little bit like the Gump character. The Senator has done it all in an unlikely rise from crushing poverty to international celebrity. But like the Gump film, there’s also that line about a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get.
That sums it up for just about every 40-year-old fighter. Pacquiao is beyond his prime, yet still has muscle memory that can recapture legendary moments. For one night at least, he could be the younger guy. Then again, he could be just another old guy trying to extend his career with one more paycheck. The reviews for Pacquiao’s last two outings have been good. Power was there in a stoppage of Lucas Matthysse in 2018. Speed was there in a decision over Adrien Broner in January.
But Matthysse was shot, a hollowed-out version of the feared puncher he had been. Broner was there to outrage, insult and entertain. He did all of that and more. He did everything, however, but fight. His punch output barely registered on the CompuBox meter.
Neither Matthysse nor Broner provided enough opposition to really get a fair look at what kind of fighter Pacquiao really is at 40. Maybe, it won’t matter against Thurman, who is called One Time yet has looked Past Time over his last few bouts. Perhaps, injuries and inactivity help explain his forgettable performance against Josesito Lopez. Or, perhaps, he is exactly the fighter he has appeared to be.
That said, he is 10 years younger than Pacquiao. He should be at his prime and he promises to be there – or back there – against a middle-aged fighter whose name is still as current as ever. There’s a better chance that the younger man can recapture his edge more readily than the older man. Thurman is still young enough to be the welterweight he has always been projected to be.
For Pacquiao, it’s not that easy. A lot of it just depends on what his aging body feels like when he wakes up on July 20, fight day.
Guess here, the odds will remain even until opening bell. Pacquiao might be a slight favorite, simply because of his enduring popularity. Those guys running behind him in those roadwork photos will bet on him too.
Meanwhile, don’t be surprised if Thurman attempts to do what a forgotten name did to Pacquiao in Australia a couple of years ago. Remember Jeff Horn? Horn roughed up Pacquiao in a punishing fight in Brisbane in July 2017. Horn won a controversial decision before hometown fans. In Vegas, it is fair to say the scoring would have gone the other way in a decision for Pacquiao, a longtime Vegas favorite.For now, however, Horn’s performance provides a tactical blueprint for Thurman, who like the Aussie can use his strong upper body to tie up, slow down and perhaps beat Pacquiao. It all depends on who shows up.