By Norm Frauenheim-
LAS VEGAS — The road team does win sometimes. Proof of that happened Wednesday night when the Washington Nationals beat the Houston Astros, winning a World Series in which only the road team won.
In more than a century of baseball, that’s never happened. In the 116th-version of the modern Series, it finally did. It was hard — make that impossible — not to wonder whether Sergey Kovalev has any kind of chance against Canelo Alvarez Saturday night (DAZN) at the MGM Grand.
If anybody ever represented a road team, it’s Kovalev, who is the underdog in a bid to stop Canelo from making his own kind of history.
He’s moving up the scale, from middleweight to light-heavyweight, in his pursuit of a fourth division. A victory over Kovalev would put Canelo among the elite in Mexico storied boxing history.
It’s no coincidence that a chance at Mexican history would be played out in front of a Mexican crowd. It’s Canelo’s town. It’ll be his crowd, too. It’s hard to find an oddsmaker, or a fan, or a pundit who doesn’t think it’s his fight, too.
By now, there are familiar theories as to why.
Theory #1: Kovalev is vulnerable to body punches, Canelo’s best punch.
Theory #2: Canelo, 29, is younger and continue to improve. Age has begun to erode the 36-year-old Kovalev’s skill set.
Theory #3: Kovalev has never been the same since Andre Ward stopped him with succession of body punches in their 2017 rematch. Kovalev says the punches were low blows. Maybe, they were. But the damage to the Russian’s career looks to be irreversible.
Apply one theory or all three, and it looks as though it’s not a matter of if, just when, Canelo adds a fourth division belt to the other three he already has in his personal history.
Throughout this week in Vegas, however, there were subtle signs that it might not be Canelo in blowout. There’s evident personal chemistry between Kovalev and his new trainer, Buddy McGirt, who has scaled back Kovalev’s training. There’s less sparring and more of an emphasis on restoring fundamental technique, especially the jab, Kovalev’s signature punch.
“I’ve told Sergey: ‘You’re an older person now which means you have to be a smarter person,’ ‘’ McGirt said.
Best guess is that smarts, the so-called ring IQ, will prove to be the decisive factor. Canelo appears to have an edge, but it’s to say how much smarter he will be throughout the scheduled 12 rounds. His intelligence, however, has been evident over the last few years. At each opening bell, he adds a new element to his skill set.
There more, a lot more, to what he can do, his trainer Eddy Reynoso says.
“People haven’t seen it all,’’ Reynoso said.
Much of his intelligence is rooted in reasonable caution. Don’t expect him to race at a bigger man with a bigger punch.
“It will be complicated, especially in the early rounds,’’ Canelo said.
It also might be complicated in the later rounds, especially if Kovalev hasn’t left the best of himself in the gym.
From this corner, Kovalev-Canelo figures to go to the scorecards. It’ll be close, but it looks as if Canelo is just a little bit smarter and has more in his ever-evolving skillset.
In this week, the real history belongs to the Nationals and Astros.
Pick: Canelo wins a close, yet unanimous decision.
