By Norm Frauenheim-
From pugilist to populist, the campaign continues. Manny Pacquiao is always running, toward the fight and for the Senate. Maybe for President, too.
Before a run at the Filipino Presidency, however, there’s a fight, at least one more in a life as storied as it is improbable. Pacquiao will answer another bell, not against Errol Spence Jr., an encounter as feared as it was anticipated.
Instead, the Senator faces Yordenis Ugas, a capable welterweight yet without any of Spence’s notoriety. Spence was a real risk; Ugas is a late stand-in.
That’s unfair to Ugas, a Cuban who got the call Tuesday after Spence was forced out of the August 21 pay-per-view date at Las Vegas T-Mobile Arena by a torn retina. But nothing about public perception, or boxing, has ever been fair. It’s fickle. Dangerous, too.
For Pacquiao, a late change in opposition has done little to alter the danger. He’s 42. The 31-year-old Spence could have hurt him. The 35-year-old Ugas can too. It all depends on how Pacquiao adjusts. Ever the politician, Pacquiao promises no adjustment is too much.
Spence is left-handed. Ugas is right-handed. So what, says Pacquiao, whose two-plus decades in the boxing and political rings have shown he can work both sides of any aisle.
“I consider myself a bipartisan boxer,” Pacquiao said Wednesday during a Zoom session with reporters. “I am used to fighting right and left-handed, so it’s not going to be a problem,”
It was a good quip, one that suggests Pacquiao is also in training for an imminent presidential campaign. In the here-and-now, however, the pressing question is whether his reflexes have resisted time’s corrosive process.
If not, Pacquiao’s career could end as abruptly as so many others have. Pacquiao’s quick hands and quicker feet could carry him in-and-out of danger, in-and-out of victory. But he hasn’t fought in more than two years. He hasn’t tested those reflexes since a split decision over Keith Thurman on July 20, 2019.
He looked forever young against Thurman. But 25 months later, forever might be forgotten. Spence or Ugas, that’s part of the risk. Part of a perverse attraction, too. But Pacquiao has never been afraid. In part, that helps explain his popularity. It endures. His chin has betrayed him. But never his popularity.
Against Spence, the numbers were daunting. He was four inches shorter. Eleven years older. He had a five-inch disadvantage in reach. Yet shrinking odds, driven by public sentiment, gave Pacquiao a chance against Spence. How come?
Because he’s Manny.
The world’s love affair with Pacquiao continues. It’s also an exception. Politicians are hated. Fans buy fights because they want to see the designated bad guy take a whipping. But Pacquaio, pugilist and politician, is loved. His goodness is inexhaustible. It also might be the only thing about him that hasn’t aged.
It helps explain how opening odds favoring Spence were cut in half, from 4-1 to 2-1, within just a couple of weeks. With Spence out and Ugas in, Pacquiao is the favorite, minus-300, meaning he has a 75-percent chance at victory.
From this corner, the odds are off. The younger Ugas has a real chance in what looks to be a pick-em fight. Had it been Spence, it still might have been close to an even fight at opening bell.
The bet, really the hope, is that goodness will prevail all over again. It’s rooted in what is remembered about Pacquiao. Risk was never tied to reward. For Pacquiao, it has never been part of a ratio. From Oscar De La Hoya to Antonio Margarito, he just took it on. Now, he decides to fight Ugas, a real fighter, instead of a Paul. Hard not to love that.
But the risk has never been bigger. Time isn’t sentimental. It just moves on. A tale of the tape tells you that Ugas has Spence-like advantages in almost every relevant dimension. The clock tells you something else. Ugas is in his prime; Pacquiao is not.
Pacquiao’s 26-years in the pro ring are a thorough record of what he does. There are no secrets. His power is intact. But nothing should surprise Ugas, whose advantages and relative youth will allow him to play a punishing waiting game. Like an incoming target, Pacquiao will have to pursue — step inside repeatedly.
Ugas figures to erode his energy with blows early and hurt him with big punches later. The Pick: Ugas, unanimous decision.
Ugas will beat him, but not knock out his popularity. Pacquiao might have enough of that to win the Filipino presidency. It’d be nice to see a good guy go on to win that fight.
