By Norm Frauenheim-
Sometimes, schedule makers are a little bit like map makers. They can draw up a pretty good path to what might be next. Or, at least, how to get there.
Connect the dates, which on boxing’s current map means David Benavidez-versus-Canelo Alvarez might be closer than ever. For a couple of years, it’s been mostly talk, most of it from Benavidez.
There was a chance, but it vanished about 13 months ago when Benavidez failed to make weight for the defense of a World Boxing Council title he had regained. Had he made the weight, he would have kept the belt. He went on to beat Roamer Alexis Angulo.
But the vacant title fell into Canelo’s powerful hands, who took it easily in what was a one-sided decision over an overmatched Callum Smith last December
Had Benavidez’ kept the belt, Canelo’s determined pursuit of a unified super-middleweight title might have already led to the Phoenix fighter. Instead, Canelo will go after the 168-pound’s last piece, the International Boxing Federation belt held by Caleb Plant.
That’s going to happen on Nov. 6, presumably in Las Vegas. Showtime made it official last week. Plant showed up at press row Saturday before the Yordenis Ugas’ upset of Manny Pacquiao at Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena, confirming that – yeah – they finally had a deal.
“Don’t congratulate me now,’’ Plant told reporters, who wanted to applaud the resolution to talks that had fallen apart a couple of weeks ago. “Congratulate me after the fight.’’
Three days later, Showtime and Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) announced that Benavidez-versus-Jose Uzcategui – originally set for Aug. 28 and postponed by Benavidez’ positive test for COVID — had been rescheduled for Nov. 13, a week later, still at the Footprint Center, the Suns arena in downtown Phoenix.
Coincidence? Only if you’re not paying attention to the signs. The timing is just the latest piece to fall in place for a fight that has been near the top of the fans’ wish list.
A Benavidez victory would put him back at the front of the WBC line for another shot to regain the title he has held twice. He would be the so-called mandatory challenger to Canelo. Benavidez, still unbeaten, is favored.
That’s not to say Uzcategui doesn’t have a chance. The Venezuelan has challenged for a major title, losing a decision to Plant in January 2019. But he’s considered a steppingstone for Benavidez, 24 and still emerging.
Before the fight was postponed, some betting sites listed Benavidez as a 1/9 favorite, meaning he has about a 90 percent chance at winning. That seems a bit much. But you get the idea. Benavidez figures to win – and win big – in his first appearance before hometown fans since he fought his way to stardom.
Canelo, too, is a big favorite, although some think Plant’s combination of footwork and toughness will surprise the sport’s top draw. Canelo is a minus-600 favorite, meaning an 85.71-percent chance at victory.
Whatever the odds, it looks as if it’s a lock that Benavidez and Canelo will win convincingly, one Saturday after the other in November. What’s not a lock is what happens next. That’s boxing, not betting. Odds are always pretty good that something unforeseen – from injury to insanity — will happen.
Benavidez-Canelo, Mexican-American-versus-Mexican, would be a good Cinco de Mayo bout in 2022. May 5 falls on Thursday next year. That Saturday, May 7, would be the day to celebrate with an opening bell.
But all of that depends on another road map, the one Canelo has drawn up for his career. He talks about history. If he beats Plant, he will have accomplished one goal with a unified title.
It’s not clear if his next step would be the pursuit of a unified title at light-heavyweight. His record already includes a key 175-pound victory, a stoppage of Sergey Kovalev in November 2019. During the on-and-off negotiations with Plant, there was talk that he might opt for a fight against Dmitry Bivol, who holds a light-heavyweight belt.
Canelo’s decision might hinge on a couple of scales — the one that measures weight and the bigger one that measures history. There’s another one, too: Benavidez. He failed on the first scale, but he’s back and still there on the second, a face and a factor that Canelo will eventually have to confront.
Now or then, at another date or another weight, November’s timing will make it inevitable.
