By Norm Frauenheim-
Oleksandr Usyk showed up a little early for Octoberfest. But there he was this week, wearing a red suit that made him look like a rare red pumpkin waiting to be the centerpiece of what could be a heavyweight celebration over the next few weeks.
Pumpkins, of course, get carved up.
But Usyk looked as if he has other ideas. Usyk, a man dressed for a change in the seasons, had the bold appearance of a fighter prepared for a changing of the guard. The heavyweights are a lot of things these days. The fabled division is a jagged collection of faces.
There’s Tyson Fury, a clever entertainer with one-liners as sharp as his long jab. There’s Deontay Wilder, wildly erratic with one scary punch to go along with crazy talk about body bags and legal homicide. There’s Anthony Joshua, proud yet often tentative in a brutal business that rarely rewards caution.
It’s a hard division to know. Harder, perhaps, to like.
For now, Usyk is the wild card, the Joker who also showed up at a news conference Wednesday in a black shirt and a yellow vest, appropriate complements to the autumn-like red. Call it Fashion by Candy Corn.
It was a statement all right. But it was more than just about fashion. Usyk has been the heavyweight of the future for a while now. Trick-or-treat, he thinks that day has arrived in his bid to take Joshua’s three versions of the belt Saturday (DAZN, 5 p.m. ET/2p.m. PT) at London’s Tottenham Stadium in the first of two heavyweight bouts in two weeks.
After a torturous succession of delays and cancellations brought on by the Pandemic and contract complications, Fury and Wilder are finally scheduled to settle their differences in a third fight on Oct. 9 in Las Vegas.
It’s been assumed that, in the end, it would all lead to Fury-Joshua. That’s still the best guess. But Usyk, who emerged as Joshua’s challenger because of an arbitrator’s ruling last summer, has a chance to overturn those long-term plans.
The guess here is that Usyk has a better chance at doing that than Wilder does. It’s hard to see how the third Wilder-Fury fight will be any different than the second one. That’s when Fury went straight at Wilder, taking away the leverage he needs to throw his feared right while also exposing him as one dimensional. Wilder’s corner threw in the towel after an embarrassing rout through six-plus rounds.
Put it this way: If Usyk were fighting Wilder instead of Joshua Saturday, he’d might be favored. He’d be this corner’s pick. Against Joshua, however, he’s not, for a variety of reasons.
Joshua (25-1, 22 KOs) is just the bigger man with enough of a skillset to offset the versatile Usyk (18-0, 13 KOs).
“I can outbox him, of course I can,’’ Joshua told Sky Sports this week. “And I can out-strength him. You have to have a bit of aggression, boxing skill, head movement. There is not just one factor that determines a fight.
“Obviously we have our go-to — our strength. I will use my strengths. But it’s called a boxing match for a reason. I love the sweet science. I will display my boxing skills, but I won’t make it too complicated in there.”
Strip away potential complications, and the guess is that Joshua will simply overpower Usyk to win a late stoppage. But it might not be that uncomplicated. Usyk has shown he can be tricky. He knows his way around the ring. The problem, however, is that he doesn’t exactly know his way around today’s generation of jumbo-sized heavyweights. All of his brilliant potential was on display during his undisputed reign at cruiserweight. At heavyweight, not so much.
The historical parallel is Evander Holyfield, who also made the cruiserweight-to-heavyweight jump. But Holyfield took his time. He had six heavyweight bouts before he took the title from poorly-conditioned Buster Douglas in October 1990.
After just two heavyweight bouts, Usyk is trying to do what Holyfield did more than three decades ago. Usyk won both, a stoppage of Chazz Witherspoon and decision over Dereck Chisora. But each performance left questions about whether he was in fact ready for Joshua or Fury.
Usyk insists he is, saying he is a full-fledged heavyweight. Maybe. He has the ability to surprise Joshua. His footwork, southpaw style, smarts and instincts can give Joshua fits. If Joshua stays poised, uses his jab and remembers he’s the bigger man, he wins. Usyk won’t, but he wins the argument for a rematch if it goes the distance.
The pick: It’ll go 12 rounds. Joshua wins a narrow decision in a bout that will lead to calls for a rematch in the court of public opinion.
Pick, Part 2: The rematch will happen and this time Uysk won’t have to wear a costume before the opening bell. Then, there will be no disguise, no doubt, about what he’s become. He’ll be a full-fledged heavyweight, perhaps the best in the division because of what he figures to learn Saturday.
