Different Numbers, Same Trend: Canelo’s box-office appeal is shrinking

By Norm Frauenheim –

It was thoroughly forgettable. Thoroughly predictable, too.

Nothing that happened within the ropes during Canelo Alvarez’ decision over Gennadiy Golovkin in a third fight registered much more than a yawn on the wow meter.

It was simply a sign that it’s time to move on.

Turns out, only that sign is important, despite over-the-top promises that were part of a tireless sales pitch before opening bell. 

Question is, will boxing heed its warning? Sometimes, the business is the last to know. Increasingly, it’s becoming evident that fans suspected the bout was over-hyped, over-due and over-priced for a trilogy between fighters who were over-the-hill.

That’s the unmistakable message in the pay-per-view numbers reported a few days after DAZN’s live-stream of the bout last Saturday at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena.

There’s some debate about the numbers, just as there was some disagreement about the scorecards (115-113, 116-112, 115-113) in favor of Canelo. Long-term, doesn’t matter. Feigned outrage about the scoring margins doesn’t change the result. Canelo clearly won.

The subsequent debate about the pay-per-view reports don’t matter, either. The trend does. To wit: The public appeal for the red-headed Canelo, Spanish for cinnamon, is beginning to look a little Oxidado, rusty.

Dan Rafael’s Fight Freaks Unite reported that the pay-per-view stream generated between 550,000 and 575,000 buys in the United States. DAZN quickly countered, issuing a statement saying that it generated 1.06-million buys worldwide. 

The numbers are hard to confirm, especially in a live-stream era when the theft rate probably rivals the buy rate. Then, there are questions about who’s counting. And how they’re counting. But there’s no argument about the trend. It’s down.

The first two Canelo-GGG bouts were televised by HBO Pay-Per-View. The first, a draw in 2017, was reported to generate 1.3 million buys, all in the United States. For the second, a controversial Canelo victory by majority decision in 2018, 1.1-million was reported, also in the United States.

By either report this week – US or worldwide, it’s down. The message: It’s time to move out of the Canelo business and back into the boxing business.

There’s a whole new generation of young, promising fighters, desperate to get a share of the attention and financial pie.

A face of that generation is David Benavidez, the unbeaten super-middleweight from Phoenix. Mention Benavidez, and Canelo sneers the way that proverbial old man might when he tells someone to get the hell off his front lawn.

Canelo complains that Benavidez has accomplished nothing. Eddie Hearn, Canelo’s promoter for the third GGG fight, says the same.

I’m not sure they’ve been listening to the fans, or a growing number of fighters and cornermen. From Paulie Malignaggi to Roy Jones Jr., the fight to see is Benavidez-versus-Canelo.

For now, at least, it doesn’t look as if that’s going to happen. Canelo beat a 40-year-old in GGG Saturday. GGG looked old, fought old. But the 32-year-old Canelo didn’t exactly fight like a young man, either.

His fatigue midway through the fight was oh-so evident. A younger man, a 25-year-old Benavidez, might have walked through him at that point. Come to think of it, so too would a younger Golovkin, say the GGG of 2017 or 2018.

Canelo already concedes he’s dealing with injuries. His knees are problematic enough to limit his roadwork. He underwent knee surgery. That might explain why he tires after four-to-five rounds. Now, he plans to undergo surgery for an injury to his left wrist.

From wrist to knees, he’s beginning to display the symptoms of his many years in the ring. He’s beginning to look like an aging fighter, no matter how old he is.

A year off might allow him to restore his knees, rehab his wrist.

Ii might allow him to rekindle his passion for the blood, bruises, wear and tear.

Then again, it also might just convince him to stay on the golf course, his latest passion.

Meanwhile, Benavidez has to fight. There are plans, father-and-trainer Jose Benavidez Sr. says, for him to fight three more times at 168-pounds, super-middleweight. Whatever the weight, he can’t wait on Canelo. He has to move on.

Boxing would be smart to move on with him. Current numbers say that’s where the future is.