By Norm Frauenheim-
It’s hard to know what to make of reported pay-per-view numbers, especially during a streaming era when numbers are misrepresented or not reported at all and the theft rate might rival the buy rate.
But they continue to accumulate, fight-after-fight, like CompuBox’s punch stats, round-after-round, in a one-sided bout. They add up to a trend. And it isn’t pretty.
The business is losing, mostly because it doesn’t get it anymore. Latest example: Deontay Wilder-Robert Helenius. It’s a pay-per-view fight.
Wilder created some controversy about 10 days ago when he told Boxing Scene he already belongs in the Hall of Fame.
Go ahead, argue about that one. But he doesn’t belong on pay-per-view. Not now, not on October 15 in his first bout since he was left on the canvas, a broken man, by Tyson Fury after 10-plus rounds of a violent beatdown nearly a year ago.
For most of the last year, there were doubts about a Wilder comeback, both in the public mind and his own. Even the winner talked about retirement. Then again, Fury talks a lot. There’s not much he doesn’t say. We’ve lost count how many times he’s been in and out retirement. He’s retired at lunch. He’s coming back at dinner.
But he did say he suffered a concussion against Wilder during their dramatic third date in Las Vegas last October. That’s believable. Nobody emerged from that heavyweight rematch unscathed. It’s a mark of just how violent it was. It’s also reason to proceed with caution.
In effect, Wilder, a former champion, is starting over. He says he decided to attempt a comeback after a statue of him was placed in front of a Tourism and Sports building in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, his hometown. Move over, Nick Saban.
The statue is a symbol of who Wilder was. But it says nothing about who he is, post-Fury.
Tough fights come with a price, but not one that fans should have to pay in a first bout, a test run on whether a comeback is even viable. If it is – if Wilder doesn’t display symptoms of lingering damage against Helenius at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center, then, yeah, it’s time to move back onto a pay-per-view stage and a comeback that would provide a further chance to prove the Hall-of-Fame claim.
But now, against Helenius, Wilder’s former sparring partner? Pay-per-view for a virtual sparring session? No way. PPV is a tag that says you’re proven, a commodity worth watching. The burden of proof is, first and foremost, what Wilder has to deliver against Helenius, a 38-year-old Finn and at best a mid-level challenger.
It should be an investment on what Wilder hopes will unfold in his comeback. Instead, he’s going straight to the pay window. In part, Wilder is selling his name recognition, which is lot more durable than chins, noses and brain cells in today’s version of the boxing biz.
He’s also doing what other fighters are. FOX is charging $74.99, which is the same price it charged for heavyweight Andy Ruiz Jr.’s unanimous decision over Luis Ortiz on Sept. 5.
It’s not clear how Ruiz-Ortiz did on PPV. It’s not, probably because it wasn’t big. Boxcar numbers get reported. Small ones don’t, but increasingly they are part of the business plan. PPV is the persistent devil in the details of a bet on immediacy instead of the future. Fighters agree to a share of PPV receipts in an attempt to get the money they want.
But it’s a gamble, a risk to them. Remember the scheduled PPV fight between lightweights Tevin Farmer and Mickey Bey in Prescott Valley, AZ last August 12? It got canceled hours before opening bell because the money wasn’t there. That’s where this business model is headed.
Above all, it puts the business at risk of losing more customers in an already eroding fan base.
More and more, a PPV tag is seen as a warning: Buyer Beware. Even Canelo Alvarez’ decision over Gennadiy Golovkin in a third fight on Sept. 17 left doubts about PPV. Arguably, Canelo-GGG 3 was the most PPV-worthy fight in 2022.
But reports indicated it failed to meet expectations for a long-awaited bout. DAZN’s PPV price for non-subscribers was $84.98, nearly a buck more than the Wilder-Helenius price tag.
It wasn’t long ago that the boxing biz declared that PPV is dead. Yet, it persists, a working definition of what Albert Einstein meant when he said insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting it to be different.
