Depending on the pundit doing the autopsy, Canelo Alvarez is – or isn’t — in decline.
It’s a story line that has become Canelo’s motivation and almost a theme for the promotion of his Sept. 30 date with Jermell Charlo on Showtime pay-per-view at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena.
Canelo has endured his share of controversy. But not much adversity. Within the ropes, at least, he’s never been knocked down. Some believe those same ropes saved him from a trip to the canvas in 2010, Canelo, then 19, rebounded, bouncing off ropes at Vegas’ MGM Grand like a projectile from a slingshot.
A first-round assault from Jose Cotto, Miguel Cotto’s brother, put him there, in peril yet never finished. He went on to win a ninth-round stoppage. It was a moment that summed up a career with few missteps.
Since then, nobody has been able to knock him off his feet. Not Gennadiy Golovkin. Not Floyd Mayweather. Not Dmitry Bivol.
Through 63 fights, Canelo has remained upright, always surefooted, throughout nearly two decades in a place full of chaos, cheap shots, slick spots and accidents.
Boxing is a sucker for the drama that transpires when a fighter gets up, off the deck to win. Yet, it has never seen Canelo in that moment. He loses. But he never falls.
Yet, an evident decline, starting with a scorecard loss to Bivol in May 2022, has fellow fighters, rival trainers and pundits wondering whether Canelo’s career is where he was 13 years ago: Off-balance and held up by only the ropes.
Maybe. A week before opening bell, time looms as a bigger question than Charlo. For Canelo, age is only a number on his birth certificate. He’s 32, still standing and squarely within the middle of the traditional window defined as prime time.
Instead, the relevant measure is 18 years. That’s how long he’s been a prizefighter, swapping punches and punishment for paychecks.
He’s been there, in harm’s way, longer than Aaron Rodgers, whose 17 years as an NFL quarterback suffered a career-threatening injury to an Achilles tendon a few weeks ago in the opening moments of his debut with the New York Jets.
Betting odds, at least, continue to suggest that Canelo will get his career off the metaphorical ropes this time with a victory over Charlo, whose power at junior-middleweight might not be there at super-middle.
As he has for the last couple of years, Canelo might tire in the later rounds. But everything in his long career says his durable defense will keep him there, throughout the scheduled 12 rounds.
The prevailing bet is that the fight will go to the scorecards. But that leaves a prevailing question: Can Charlo win a decision? The promotional tag for the fight is Undisputed. Charlo is the undisputed champ at junior-middle; Canelo is undisputed at 168. There’s some fear that Undisputed will be a huge dispute if it goes to the judges.
Canelo, currently about a 4-to-1 favorite, figures to be the overwhelming favorite among fans in front of an expected capacity crowd at T-Mobile.
Charlo can win, even if it’s close, but only if he forgets about the judges, says his former trainer, Ronnie Shields.
“That’s the biggest problem,’’ Shields said during a Zoom session with reporters. “But going in, you can’t think about that. Just go in to win rounds, round after round.
“Charlo has to make sure he wins rounds convincingly. You won’t win close rounds against Canelo.’’
Shields picks Charlo to win by split decision. Charlo, he says, has an edge, especially late.
“Charlo is one of the few fighters who holds his power throughout the whole fight.,’’ Shields said.” You don’t get too many of those.’’
You don’t get too many decisions over Canelo, either. For Charlo, the question is whether the power will be decisive enough – early or late – to do what no one else has: Knock down Canelo.